Germany Races to Replace U.S. as NATO’s Military Backbone

As U.S. commitment to NATO grows increasingly uncertain, Germany is ramping up defense spending and military reform in a bid to take on a leading role within the alliance.

Facing a protracted war in Ukraine and growing doubts about NATO from former President Donald Trump, newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is positioning his country to become the anchor of European defense.

Last week, Merz visited Lithuania to inaugurate the permanent deployment of a German tank brigade—marking Germany’s first long-term foreign military presence since World War II. The move signals a dramatic shift in Berlin’s defense posture and a clear effort to fill the void left by a potentially retreating America.

“During the Cold War, we relied on our allies to stand by us in an emergency. Today, we must be that ally,” Merz told a gathering of 700 German soldiers stationed in Lithuania.

A New Military Ambition

Chancellor Merz has made rebuilding the German armed forces a cornerstone of his political agenda. In both his inaugural address and recent remarks in Vilnius, he pledged to transform Germany’s military into the strongest conventional force in Europe.

The message is clear: with Russia threatening Europe’s eastern flank and Trump pressuring NATO members to shoulder more defense costs, Germany aims to step up and lead.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has been tasked with overhauling the country’s under-resourced military. Despite a nearly complete cabinet shakeup, Pistorius was reappointed—an unusual move in German politics—signaling trust in his leadership during a critical time.

One of Merz’s first major initiatives was pushing a constitutional amendment to exempt military spending from national debt limits. His predecessor, Olaf Scholz, borrowed roughly $114 billion after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Now, freed from debt constraints, the Merz government is poised to invest nearly five times that amount into defense.

Both Pistorius and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul have recently proposed raising military spending to 3.5% of Germany’s GDP, plus an additional 1.5% for critical defense infrastructure. Trump had previously called for NATO allies to meet a 5% defense spending target.

The proposal is expected to take center stage at the upcoming NATO summit. If enacted, it would mark a major departure for Germany, which has struggled for years to meet the alliance’s 2% goal.

“The war in Ukraine has changed everything—especially for Germany’s military,” Pistorius said shortly before joining Merz in Lithuania.

A Military in Need of Repair

Germany’s armed forces are in dire need of modernization. A recent report by Parliamentary Commissioner Eva Högl revealed widespread issues: dilapidated barracks, shuttered training centers, even broken fences at military bases.

Highly skilled personnel like medics and helicopter pilots are often stuck performing administrative tasks due to staffing shortages. Some units can’t operate at all.

While over $113 billion has been earmarked for advanced weapons systems, many units still lack basic equipment such as tanks and artillery—much of it having been donated to Ukraine. Stocks of ammunition and spare parts are critically low, raising concerns about sustainability in a prolonged conflict.

Germany’s troop numbers are also falling short. Despite a record year for recruitment, the Bundeswehr counts only 180,000 active personnel—about 20,000 short of its minimum operational needs. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union supports reintroducing mandatory military service, but his coalition partners in the Social Democratic Party remain firmly opposed.

Pistorius, once criticized for warning that Germany must be ready for war, is now exploring a Swedish-style recruitment model that would register all young adults and offer tailored enlistment options.

Military historian Sönke Neitzel argues that beyond recruitment, the German armed forces suffer from top-heavy staffing. “Too many officers, too few combat-ready soldiers,” he said. “It’s still a peacekeeping force overwhelmed by bureaucracy—major structural change is needed.”

A Symbol of Resolve in Lithuania

The newly deployed 45th Tank Brigade in Vilnius will eventually number 4,800 troops by 2027. When Pistorius first announced plans for the brigade two years ago, skeptics doubted it would come together so quickly. But he made it a personal mission—traveling frequently to Lithuania not only to oversee base construction, but also to establish schools and childcare facilities to support military families.

At a recent ceremony in Vilnius’ Cathedral Square, 87-year-old Edmund Kulikauskas applauded Merz and Pistorius, despite steady rain. A survivor of Nazi occupation who later spent decades in the U.S., Kulikauskas returned to Lithuania in 1994 to help rebuild his homeland.

“We’ve lived in peace for years, but now we feel real danger again,” he said, noting that the 5,000 German troops would serve as a critical deterrent.

Asked whether he was uneasy about a German military presence, Kulikauskas replied: “These are not the same Germans.”

Sources: AP, Reuters, AFP

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