How Much Damage Has Israel Done to Iran’s Nuclear Program?

Israel has struck a significant blow to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, targeting uranium enrichment sites in a sweeping air campaign—but experts warn it may not be enough to derail Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

For years, Israeli leaders have viewed Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. On June 13, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified launching a preemptive strike by calling Iran’s nuclear capabilities “a threat to the very survival of Israel.”

According to international observers, the Israeli strikes caused serious disruptions. At the time of the attack, Iran had three major uranium enrichment facilities in operation.

Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Heart

The first and most critical is the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz. Israeli jets reportedly knocked out the plant’s power supply. The site—an underground facility built to house 50,000 centrifuges—was operating with around 13,500 centrifuges enriching uranium to 5% at the time.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the sudden blackout likely damaged some centrifuges, which are highly sensitive and can be destroyed if shut down improperly. Satellite imagery analyzed by the IAEA suggests Israel’s strikes directly hit the facility.

The second site, the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), also located at Natanz, was reportedly destroyed. Unlike the FEP, PFEP is an above-ground structure and was more vulnerable to airstrikes. Although smaller, it plays a key role in advanced enrichment using roughly 328 centrifuges to reach 60% purity—close to weapons-grade—and another 201 units enriching uranium to 2%.

The third facility is Fordow, Iran’s most fortified site. Built into a mountain near the holy city of Qom, Fordow houses around 2,000 centrifuges and is responsible for producing the bulk of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium. The IAEA estimates it has already produced over 166 kilograms—enough, in theory, for nearly four nuclear bombs.

Many experts believe Fordow could only be destroyed with a U.S.-made bunker-busting bomb. “Israel has hit critical points in Iran’s nuclear infrastructure,” said Richard Nephew, a former U.S. nuclear negotiator. “But if you’re worried about a real nuclear threat, Fordow is the ace card.”

Rebuilding Natanz and PFEP could take up to a year, analysts say.

Crippling the Bomb Supply Chain

Beyond the enrichment facilities, Israel also struck key links in Iran’s bomb-making supply chain. In Isfahan, Israeli forces reportedly destroyed four buildings—two of which were essential to weapons development. One was a conversion plant used to turn uranium into gas for centrifuges, and the other processed enriched uranium into metal—crucial for a nuclear warhead.

At least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists were reportedly killed in the strikes since June 13. Netanyahu stated that targeting these individuals could delay Iran’s nuclear weapon development “by several years.” However, analysts caution that Iran likely has a robust system in place to preserve and pass down its nuclear knowledge.

A Race Against Time?

Tehran continues to insist that its nuclear program is peaceful. But IAEA reports as of May 17 show that Iran now possesses enough 60%-enriched uranium to theoretically produce nine nuclear weapons. It also holds enough 20% enriched uranium for two bombs, and enough 5% uranium for 11 more.

Much of the highest-enriched material is stored at the Isfahan complex and is under IAEA surveillance. The agency has not disclosed whether these stockpiles were impacted by Israel’s strikes. Some experts believe Iran may also be hiding centrifuges at undeclared locations—a suspicion reinforced by Iran’s long-standing refusal to grant IAEA full access to footage from its centrifuge production sites.

Analysts note that such facilities wouldn’t need to be large—just a few hundred advanced centrifuges could produce weapons-grade material in a short time.

Still, Israel’s deep intelligence penetration into Iran may deter Tehran from moving sensitive operations underground. “The threat of detection and destruction is real,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security.

Albright believes Israel’s attack has “significantly reduced” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but not enough to eliminate the threat entirely. “To truly neutralize the program, Fordow and Natanz would have to be destroyed, stockpiles eliminated, and key scientists and equipment removed,” he explained.

Sima Shine, a former senior analyst at Mossad, said the success of the campaign ultimately hinges on how much it sets back Iran’s nuclear plans. So far, that remains unclear.

“The worst-case scenario is that the attack speeds up Iran’s decision to build a bomb,” Shine warned. “And if they can, I’m sure they will.”

Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal