Although U.S. law prohibits the president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO, enforcement of this restriction could be challenging, and Trump may weaken commitments to the alliance in a way that amounts to a "stealth exit."
In his first post-election interview on December 8, President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his warning that the U.S. might consider leaving NATO if member nations fail to contribute equitably to the alliance's defense budget.
Trump issued similar warnings during his first term, sparking anxiety among NATO allies. In December 2023, Congress passed legislation to limit presidential authority regarding NATO to preempt such moves.
The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), approved at the time, prohibits the president from withdrawing the U.S. from NATO without the approval of two-thirds of the Senate or an act of Congress. This measure, introduced by Senators Tim Kaine (D) and Marco Rubio (R), sought to safeguard NATO membership. However, Scott Anderson, a scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington, warns that the legislation is not an ironclad safeguard against Trump's potential withdrawal.
"The law doesn’t explicitly bar the president from ordering a withdrawal from NATO; it merely warns against such actions, indicating that a president defying it could face legal challenges," Anderson said.
Legal and Political Hurdles
It remains unclear if Congress would have sufficient grounds to take legal action if Trump merely announced the U.S. intention to withdraw from NATO, said Curtis Bradley, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School.
The Supreme Court often treats disputes between branches of government as political matters best resolved through political processes rather than judicial intervention.
"For a case to proceed, there must be a plaintiff," Bradley said. "The most likely plaintiff would be Congress, but it’s unclear if a Republican-controlled Congress would support such a move."
After the November elections, Republicans will control both the House and Senate, making legal actions against Trump unlikely. Even if the Supreme Court takes up the case, its rulings on constitutional matters related to treaties are often ambiguous. Congress has never directly sued a president over withdrawing the U.S. from a treaty.
Under NATO’s treaty, a member must formally notify others of its intent to withdraw and wait one year before losing its membership. However, NATO relies heavily on mutual trust, so submitting such a notice would effectively signal the country's departure, according to Camille Grande, a former NATO assistant secretary general. "It’s akin to saying, ‘I no longer uphold my commitments,’" Grande said.
Undermining NATO Without Withdrawal
Trump could weaken NATO without formally exiting the alliance. "He could scale back U.S. engagement in NATO through various means," said Alexander Vershbow, a fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Vershbow outlined scenarios in which the U.S. could "quietly abandon" NATO, such as withdrawing troops from Europe, halting participation in joint missions, or removing missile defense systems currently deployed on the continent.
Democratic lawmakers have previously warned that Trump might undermine NATO by cutting aid, withdrawing ambassadors, or skipping joint exercises, effectively severing ties without officially leaving the alliance.
In February, some lawmakers called for additional measures to prevent such scenarios, but no concrete actions have been taken. While critics argue that Trump’s rhetoric undermines NATO, some Republican lawmakers view his threats as effective pressure to compel members to increase defense spending.
NATO’s Response to Trump’s Threats
Trump’s earlier threats had tangible effects. After his first-term warnings, NATO reported that 23 of its 32 members would meet the alliance’s target of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense—a record high. In 2014, only three NATO members—the U.S., the UK, and Greece—met this threshold.
Barry R. Posen, a professor of international relations at MIT, argued that NATO members should intensify diplomatic efforts to change Trump’s views and allocate more resources to defense if they want to preserve the alliance.
"The U.S. has passed laws requiring congressional approval for withdrawal from NATO," said former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. "When I visited Congress, I sensed strong bipartisan support for remaining in NATO. A president can create turmoil for NATO, but leaving entirely? I don’t see that happening."
Charles Kupchan, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, echoed this sentiment.
"Despite the threats, I don’t believe Trump will withdraw the U.S. from NATO," Kupchan told Newsweek. "I don’t think he’d want to be remembered as the president who dismantled the West’s largest military alliance."
(Sources: Politico, NBC News, Newsweek)
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