Many NATO leaders quickly congratulated Donald Trump on his victory, masking their underlying concerns about European security and the alliance's support for Ukraine as he prepares to return.
Donald Trump defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the November 5th presidential election, paving the way for his return to the White House, as he had promised.
Even before major news outlets officially called the election for Trump, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte extended his congratulations, noting Trump's string of victories in key battleground states.
"His leadership will once again be crucial in keeping our alliance strong. I look forward to working with him to advance peace through NATO," Rutte stated. French President Emmanuel Macron, representing a key NATO member in Europe, quickly followed suit by congratulating "President Donald Trump." "I am ready to work with President Trump with the same respect and ambition as we did during those previous years," Macron wrote on November 6th. "Our relationship is built on mutual trust and cooperation for greater peace and prosperity."
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described Trump's win as a "historic victory" while reaffirming the enduring strength of the US-UK relationship. The enthusiastic messages welcoming Trump's return, issued even before his victory speech or Harris's concession, appeared to mask the concerns among NATO allies about what a Trump administration might mean for European security, particularly given the ongoing complexity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, analysts noted.
Trump previously unsettled NATO allies by asserting during his campaign that the US would not defend members failing to meet the alliance's defense spending target of 2% of GDP. During his first term, Trump repeatedly criticized allies on this front, even threatening to withdraw the US from NATO if they did not contribute more.
In an effort to placate Trump, NATO leaders frequently credited him for pressing allies to prioritize defense spending. This urgency has intensified since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2023.
Currently, 23 of the alliance's 32 members have met the 2% GDP target, a significant increase from just three members achieving it a decade ago.
However, observers suggest that Europe must do more to "stand on its own feet" and satisfy Trump's demands.
"I expect a serious push for Europe to take its security and defense more seriously, along with greater investment to support it," said a former senior NATO diplomat. The diplomat also warned that Trump, if re-elected, would likely continue to cast doubt on America's commitment to NATO's collective defense clause, potentially weakening the alliance.
For Ukraine, which faces significant challenges in its fight against Russia, the future could become even more uncertain. Trump has expressed opposition to "unlimited support" for Ukraine and has vowed to negotiate swiftly with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict.
"If Trump decides to negotiate with Russia, the resulting deal might not be based on values and principles, which could have disastrous consequences for Ukraine and all of Europe," warned the former diplomat.
Camille Grand, an analyst with the European Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted two potential scenarios for Trump's impact on NATO.
"One scenario resembles his first term, challenging but not catastrophic. The other envisions a different reality shaped by Trump's skepticism toward alliances and reduced support for Ukraine, especially as the first term saw no European conflicts," Grand stated.
Some European officials agree that Ukraine faces serious risks but also believe that Trump's presidency could benefit Kyiv. They argue that Trump's unpredictable nature and resistance to compromise might lead him to bolster support for Ukraine if Putin's demands are excessive.
Political analysts suggest that NATO Secretary General Rutte could be crucial in navigating the alliance through uncertainty during a Trump administration. Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, is viewed as a politically savvy leader who has maintained a positive rapport with Trump in past meetings. Trump reportedly holds Rutte in high regard due to Rutte's praise for his efforts to increase European defense spending during a 2018 NATO summit, according to Dick Zandee, head of the Security and Defense Program at the Clingendael Institute in The Hague.
"Rutte credited Trump for pushing Europe to invest more in defense, and Trump appreciated the recognition. Since then, Rutte has enjoyed a good relationship with Trump's White House," Zandee noted.
This is why some senior NATO officials remain cautiously optimistic about a second Trump term, believing that his "America First" approach could push Europe to take its own defense more seriously.
"Why fear Trump? It will be tough, but at least he will create momentum for this," one unnamed diplomat remarked.
Others argue that the alliance not only survived but emerged stronger under Trump's pressure, as it forced Europe to boost its contributions.
"During his first term, our relationship focused on reinforcing transatlantic security and preparing for the future. In an increasingly uncertain world, American leadership remains essential," former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wrote on social media.
(According to AFP, Euronews)
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