On November 5th, alongside voting for the next president, American voters will also elect representatives for the entire House and over 30 Senate seats, potentially reshaping control of Congress.
On the ballot, Americans will choose not only the president but also those who will represent their states in the House and Senate, influencing Congress's composition for the coming years. They will also vote on 13 gubernatorial races and 159 ballot measures across 41 states.
Congress, consisting of the House of Representatives and the Senate, is the legislative branch responsible for creating and enacting laws. The House has 435 members with two-year terms, while the Senate has 100 members with six-year terms. Currently, Democrats hold a slim Senate majority with 51 seats, including three independents who align with them.
Senate members are divided into three classes: I, II, and III, with 33, 33, and 34 members, respectively. Class I, which will be up for election this year, includes 19 Democratic seats, 4 independents, and 10 Republican seats. With a special election in Nebraska, 34 Senate seats will be contested.
The seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio are the most likely to flip, as Trump won all three states in the last two presidential elections. Democrats face a significant challenge in retaining the West Virginia seat, where Senator Joe Manchin is retiring, and his position will be contested by Democrat Glenn Elliott and Republican Jim Justice.
In Montana and Ohio, Republicans are confident about unseating Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown. Their respective opponents are Tim Sheehy and Bernie Moreno. A recent Hill/Emerson College poll shows Sheehy leading Tester by four percentage points.
Races in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are also tightening. Democrats are finding it especially challenging to hold Wisconsin, though they have a relative advantage in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Senator Bob Casey faces a strong challenge from Republican Dave McCormick, with the latest Quinnipiac poll showing a narrow 50%-47% lead for Casey.
Other crucial Senate races are in Arizona and Nevada, both key battlegrounds for the presidential race. According to Decision Desk HQ from The Hill, Republicans have a 70% chance of retaking the Senate.
In the House, each state’s representation is based on population, with Republicans currently holding a majority of 220 seats, compared to the Democrats' 212, with three seats vacant. Cook Political Report notes that 22 House seats are competitive, and Democrats need to gain six to reclaim control.
“This will be one of the closest races for the House ever,” Cook Political Report says. “The battleground is narrowed to just a few dozen districts, with no clear advantage for either party. We may not know which party controls the House on election night due to close races on the West Coast.”
Key House races overlap with battlegrounds for the Senate and presidential election, including seats in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. The House outcome will also depend on competitive Republican-held seats in California and New York, traditionally Democratic strongholds.
According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans have a 53% chance of retaining the House. If Trump wins and Republicans control both chambers, the new president would have enhanced power to push his legislative agenda. If Kamala Harris is elected, a Republican-controlled Congress would pose significant obstacles.
If Republicans take the Senate while Democrats hold the House, it would be the first instance of a “split Congress.” If this scenario coincides with a Trump victory, it would mark a rare "triple flip," New York Magazine reports.
(According to BBC, The Hill, CNN)
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