Poland’s President-Elect Could Reshape Ties With EU and Ukraine
Poland’s newly elected president, Karol Nawrocki, is expected to take office in August—and his victory may strain relations with both the European Union and Ukraine.
Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian with strong nationalist and conservative views, defeated pro-European Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, in a tight race, according to the national electoral commission. Backed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki is set to succeed outgoing President Andrzej Duda on August 6.
Though Poland’s presidency is largely ceremonial, the role carries key powers, including the ability to veto legislation—something Duda frequently exercised to block Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform efforts. Analysts warn that Nawrocki could wield the veto even more aggressively, complicating Tusk’s attempts to restore judicial independence and repair ties with Brussels after years of PiS rule.
A Conservative Historian With an EU-Skeptic Agenda
Born in the northern port city of Gdansk, Nawrocki earned a PhD in history in 2013 and later managed Poland’s World War II Museum before becoming head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN)—a state body tasked with investigating historical crimes. His career has granted him access to high-level state secrets and a platform to shape Poland’s national narrative.
His campaign focused heavily on patriotic themes, Catholic values, and resistance to EU influence—winning strong support from right-wing voters. Observers say Nawrocki is likely to adopt a combative stance toward Brussels, echoing the approach of Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
“He’s poised to become another EU leader intent on blocking key initiatives,” said Adam Leszczynski, director of the Gabriel Narutowicz Institute of Political Thought.
Nawrocki strongly opposes Prime Minister Tusk’s vision of integrating Poland more deeply into the EU, particularly proposals that would shift more power to Brussels in the name of forming a European "superstate."
Instead, he favors deepening Poland’s defense and diplomatic ties with Washington. He met with former U.S. President Donald Trump in May to signal that pivot.
Mixed Signals on Ukraine
While Nawrocki supports military aid for Ukraine in its war against Russia, he opposes Ukrainian membership in NATO and has ruled out deploying Polish troops across the border. His stance reflects a shift in Polish public opinion, where support for Ukraine has waned after more than a million Ukrainian refugees settled in the country.
Critics accuse Nawrocki of fueling resentment toward refugees for political gain—an allegation he brushes off by invoking his campaign slogan: “Poland First.”
Nawrocki has also echoed Trump in questioning whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown sufficient gratitude for Poland’s support. Some analysts warn that under Nawrocki, Poland could go from being Ukraine’s most reliable ally to a more conditional partner as the war drags on.
Despite his hardline rhetoric, Nawrocki denies being pro-Russian. He insists that Poland has the right to raise historical grievances with Kyiv, including calls to exhume the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.
A Political Warning for Tusk
Nawrocki’s win marks a political setback for Tusk’s pro-European coalition, which took power in 2023 but continues to struggle with internal divisions and legislative gridlock. The defeated candidate, Trzaskowski, is widely seen as an informal proxy for Tusk in the presidential race—even though the prime minister did not officially endorse him.
“This election was essentially a referendum on the current government,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs in Warsaw. “And the outcome is a warning shot.”
Political scientist Bartosz Rydlinski noted that Tusk’s government has repeatedly failed to gather enough parliamentary support to override presidential vetoes, revealing fractures within the ruling coalition. Nawrocki’s presidency may further embolden PiS to push for early elections in hopes of regaining power.
Sources: AP, Reuters, Novinite
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