Political instincts propel Trump's 'historic victory'

Despite frequent complaints from advisors that Donald Trump strayed from the campaign strategy, he trusted his political instincts and secured victory.

Before July, Republican candidate Donald Trump’s presidential campaign was largely smooth. Confidence surged after he outperformed President Joe Biden during a live debate in late June.

However, when Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, leaving the opportunity to his vice president Kamala Harris, Trump's campaign appeared caught off guard, unable to issue any statement for several hours.

While MAGA Inc., a primary super PAC supporting Trump, quickly released attack ads against the new rival Harris, the Trump campaign took days to react. Allies and advisors urged Trump to focus on core issues like the economy and immigration, insisting that sticking to these themes would defeat the new opponent.

But as Harris gained traction in polls and amassed significant support with substantial funding, Trump grew frustrated and criticized his campaign’s response.

Ignoring top advisors' suggestions to return to strategy or blaming them for underestimating Harris' rise, Trump asserted, “I need to do this my way,” in August. Trump then brought Corey Lewandowski, a longtime advisor fired during the 2016 campaign, back into his reelection effort. Lewandowski, author of "Let Trump Be Trump," was a staunch advocate of Trump's controversial and conspiratorial viewpoints.

Lewandowski's return in mid-August caused concern as he suggested replacing top campaign officials. Previous campaigns had been marked by internal conflict and reshuffling, raising fears of a repeat.

This time, Trump refrained from any firings. "He acted more cautiously, aware that shaking up staff would create campaign chaos and draw media scrutiny. So, he didn’t go that route," said a campaign insider.

When Harris maintained her lead in some September polls, Trump escalated rhetoric around immigration and border security. In a September 10 debate, he claimed without evidence that Venezuelan gangs were "occupying" parts of Colorado and repeated unsubstantiated rumors about Haitian immigrants.

Some donors and advisors feared that relying on misinformation and conspiracy theories would alienate independent voters. Donors urged a shift to substantive issues, but Trump stayed true to his instincts. He continued highlighting "immigrant crime waves," despite research showing similar crime rates between immigrants and native-born Americans. Trump leveraged immigration as a pressing national threat.

Whether criticized or supported, Trump effectively embedded immigration deeper into the election discourse, say analysts Alexandra Ulmer and Gram Slattery of Reuters. As his poll numbers improved in October, some advisors began praising Trump's approach. They believed he had redirected the campaign to his advantage.

"I think some contentious statements about pets or other remarks drew attention to overwhelmed communities," said GOP strategist Jason Cabel Roe.

Observers note Trump capitalized on economic discontent and voters’ desire for leadership change.

Trump pinned rising prices on the Biden-Harris administration. Prices rose 17.6% during Biden's first 35 months compared to 6.2% during Trump's term, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“A key factor in Trump's victory was nostalgia for the perceived better economy under Trump versus the Biden-Harris administration,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres explained.

A national survey by Edison Research showed 51% trusted Trump on the economy, compared to 47% for Harris. Economic concerns topped the list for 79% of voters.

Trump's firm, sometimes harsh, stance on immigration and inflation resonated with his base. Working-class white voters in struggling areas saw him as a champion against the establishment who empathized with their frustrations. Toward campaign's end, Trump’s rhetoric grew more intense, warning of potential nuclear conflict if he lost.

Trump dictated campaign event timing and topics, guided by his reality-TV instincts.

At a Wisconsin rally on October 30, Trump exited his plane wearing a reflective sanitation vest and climbed aboard a garbage truck, mocking Biden’s "trash" comment about Trump supporters. The stunt went viral, captivating voters.

On the trail, Trump regularly asked if voters felt better under him or the current administration. "That question made battleground voters reflect on their current state, often answering 'no'," said GOP advisor Jon Fleischman.

Economic advisor Scott Bessent prepared a detailed speech for a North Carolina rally in August. But Trump deviated, focusing instead on border security and attacking Harris.

While advisors were stunned, attendees cheered. Positive staff feedback convinced Bessent of Trump’s instincts.

Decisive wins in key battleground states vindicated Trump's instincts on his path back to the White House. “We made history by overcoming what everyone said we couldn’t,” President-elect Trump declared on victory night.

(According to  AFP, AP)

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