Donald Trump, during his first term as president, achieved notable successes with his negotiation tactics, but the emerging alliance of U.S. adversaries now presents a much tougher challenge.
In his initial presidency, Trump’s pragmatic diplomacy divided top U.S. rivals. He cultivated closer ties with Russia and North Korea while ramping up pressure on China and Iran, forcing them to pursue their own separate interests. These strategies yielded measurable results, such as curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, preventing Russia from aligning too closely with China, and pressuring Iran into negotiations.
During his campaign for a second term, Trump promised to use his negotiation skills to quickly end the war in Ukraine, counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, address China’s rise, and bolster U.S. military strength. But his return to the White House comes as America’s primary adversaries—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—have grown closer, forming a de facto alliance since the Ukraine conflict began.
A Growing Alliance
In 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, pledging mutual support if either is attacked. Iran has also supplied Russia with drones and other resources to support Moscow’s military campaign.
Last weekend, Russia and Iran signed their own Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, valid for 20 years, focusing on addressing shared security threats. While not a mutual defense pact like the Russia-North Korea agreement, it solidifies Tehran-Moscow ties.
Hours after Trump’s January 20 inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders reaffirmed their "comprehensive strategic partnership," emphasizing shared national interests and a common vision for a multipolar global order.
The growing partnership between Moscow and Beijing has been pivotal for Russia’s resilience amid Western sanctions over the Ukraine war. Trade with China provides Moscow with vital energy contracts and dual-use goods, which can serve both civilian and military purposes.
The Biden administration had previously warned about the increasing alignment among these adversaries, describing their cooperation as a threat to U.S. economic and military influence globally.
Trump’s Negotiation Challenge
Trump’s initial approach of dividing adversaries now faces a tougher test.
“Trump has expressed a desire to 'de-escalate with Russia' while pressuring China through trade measures. However, Moscow’s alignment with Beijing and their mutual benefits make it much harder for the U.S. to negotiate separately with either,” said Daniel Russel, a former advisor to President Obama on East Asia.
Russia’s resilience against sanctions—supported by Chinese energy contracts and goods—demonstrates the difficulty of isolating any member of this informal alliance.
Trump’s newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled China the “greatest threat” to the U.S. and accused Russia, Iran, and North Korea of spreading chaos worldwide. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz echoed these concerns, pointing to Iran’s provision of funds for Russian weaponry through discounted oil sales to China.
Washington’s Strategy
Some analysts believe the Trump administration will try to deal with these rivals individually.
“The Trump team is likely to avoid treating this as a unified alliance and instead push for separate deals with Moscow and Pyongyang,” said Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute.
Still, it will be difficult to fracture these relationships. Iran and Russia recently reaffirmed their strategic partnership, while Tehran has little incentive to cooperate with the U.S., given Trump’s pledge to revive the “maximum pressure” policy targeting Iran’s economy and nuclear program.
Similarly, North Korea’s growing ties with China and Russia reduce its dependency on the U.S. for negotiations.
“With extensive backing from both Moscow and Beijing, Pyongyang may feel it doesn’t need to engage with Washington anymore,” said Michael Froman, a former U.S. trade representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Trump’s return to power will test his negotiation skills against a landscape where U.S. adversaries are more unified than ever before.
(Sources: Reuters, AP)
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