Silent voters, who prefer to keep their choices private from pollsters, could play a crucial role in this year's U.S. presidential election, potentially altering the expected outcomes.

Actress Julia Roberts highlighted the importance of ballot secrecy in a TV ad aimed at reassuring Kamala Harris's female supporters that they could safely vote for her without revealing their choice, even to family members. But what if these silent voters also conceal their preferences from pre-election polls?

If poll results fail to accurately reflect the true intentions of women, who make up over 50% of voters, predictions of a close race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris could be misleading. This secrecy among certain voter groups is a factor pollsters are concerned may skew data.

Following Trump's unexpected victory in 2016 and underestimations of his support in 2020, some analysts attributed it to “shy Trump voters” wary of sharing their true intentions. This year, social pressure may instead cause some anti-Trump voters, especially women, to withhold their support for Harris even in polls.

Efforts to mobilize "silent Harris voters" have caught Trump's attention. He criticized Roberts' ad, which was produced by Vote Common Good, encouraging women to vote for Harris privately. Roberts reassured voters in the ad that no one would know their choice, a message resonating with Harris's supporters, including Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney.

The influence of silent voters remains a question mark. Some pollsters worry that ongoing reluctance from certain Trump supporters to engage with pollsters could again lead to underestimating his backing. Polls may also miss last-minute voters who register and cast their ballots on Election Day, particularly in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.

Polls have also tracked fluctuating support for independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose presence on ballots could impact tight races. Though Kennedy withdrew from the race, he remains listed in some key states, potentially drawing votes away from Trump or Harris.

Ultimately, the true impact of silent voters and independent candidates on the election remains uncertain, as they could sway the outcome in this tightly contested race.

(According to WSJ, AFP, Reuters)

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