Many polling organizations in the United States are facing criticism for incorrectly assessing Donald Trump's chances of defeating Kamala Harris in what has been dubbed "the closest election in history."
Donald Trump had previously been underestimated by many pollsters during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns, and this trend continued in this election cycle.
Although not all states in the U.S. have finished counting votes, preliminary results, especially in seven battleground states, indicate that many American pollsters underestimated Trump's ability to secure victory.
Before the election, numerous reputable polling organizations predicted a tight race in the battleground states and suggested that it would be difficult to declare a winner on the night of November 5. Some even projected that Harris would win the majority of the battleground states. A few pollsters were more optimistic about Trump's chances. The final polling results from Real Clear Polling just before the election showed the Republican candidate leading Democratic contender Kamala Harris in North Carolina by a narrow margin of 1.3 percentage points.
In reality, in North Carolina, with 99% of the votes counted, Trump secured 51.1% of the votes, outpacing Harris by 3.4 percentage points.
Polling data for Pennsylvania, another key battleground state, suggested that Trump held a razor-thin 0.2 percentage point lead over Harris. However, with 98% of the votes counted, Trump garnered 50.5% of the vote, while Harris secured 48.5%.
Rory Stewart, host of the podcast "The Rest Is Politics," stated this week that he was "completely convinced" Harris would win. Most of his colleagues shared the same prediction.
The disappointment with pollsters deepened when many online betting companies claimed they had more accurately predicted the outcome than seasoned experts in the field. Five betting platforms, including Betfair, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Smarkets, predicted that Trump had a better chance of winning even before election day.
"Trump was underestimated by approximately 2 percentage points in key state surveys," said Pedro Azevedo, head of U.S. polling at the Brazilian data company AtlasIntel. Experts suggest that polling inaccuracies stem from a segment of Trump's supporters refusing to participate in surveys, making it challenging for pollsters to accurately gauge their influence.
In recent polls conducted by NY Times/Siena College, "white Democratic respondents had a response rate 16% higher than white Republicans," noted Nate Cohn, a data analyst and polling expert at NY Times. He added that while pollsters attempted to correct this discrepancy, it was insufficient.
"It is evident that polls significantly underestimated Trump's support among Latino voters," Azevedo said.
Observers highlighted Iowa as a key example of this issue.
"People may have voted but chose not to disclose their preferences to pollsters, potentially giving Trump an edge," said Selzer, an Iowa-based pollster.
Historian Rick Perlstein, who has written extensively on the rise of American conservatism, criticized the reliance on polling in modern elections.
"Iowa has declared Trump the winner. Polls are just a reference point. It’s refreshing to see many people starting to pay less attention to them," he wrote on X.
Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University who has correctly predicted the outcomes of 11 out of 12 previous presidential elections using his own system, admitted his error this time. "I was wrong this time," he said. Lichtman had confidently predicted Harris's victory in the race for the White House.
"I acknowledge my mistake. I predicted Harris would win, but she lost. I’m not the only forecaster who got it wrong. Most prediction models this cycle were off the mark," Lichtman concluded.
(According to The Guardian, Telegraph, PressGazette)
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