Trump plans to apply both tough pressure and persuasive negotiation to achieve solutions for various global geopolitical crises.

As the world has become more perilous compared to when Donald Trump first took office in 2017, his advisors anticipate he will address conflicts through a "carrot and stick" approach—on one hand, building deterrence against foreign adversaries, and on the other, showing a willingness to negotiate and support cooperative policies with U.S. allies.

According to these advisors, the United States has lacked authority in the eyes of its adversaries under President Joe Biden’s administration. They believe that by flexing economic and military might, a second Trump presidency could bring about peace or at least halt escalating conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and beyond. "We will have peace through strength again. America’s adversaries need to understand that the gains they have made over the past four years will no longer be tolerated," warned Robert O'Brien, Trump’s former national security advisor and a potential key figure in the next administration.

However, implementing such policies is no easy feat, especially with Russia, Iran, and North Korea drawing closer together and strengthening their economic and diplomatic ties with China, the U.S.'s strategic rival, experts caution.

Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who held top national security positions under Trump, stated that the 47th President would employ a policy of "engage and persuade" with both adversaries and allies by building personal relationships with world leaders.

Unlike President Joe Biden, who has not spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin since February 2022, Trump has repeatedly signaled a desire to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict directly with the Kremlin leader.

Such a personal diplomacy strategy could help weaken newly formed anti-American coalitions, according to Kellogg.

"Everything starts with personal relationships," he said. "President Trump will connect with key leaders to seek resolutions. You always have stronger options, like sanctions or force, but that is not the first move."

With allies and partners, Trump may escalate pressure by threatening tariffs on imports from Europe and Asia, as he declared during his campaign. He often complained that nations like Germany, which has a significant trade surplus with the U.S. while benefiting from American military protection, are taking advantage of American generosity.

"I don’t think Trump plans to dismantle alliances, but he doesn’t hold them in high regard either," said Jeremy Shapiro, director of the U.S. program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "He sees allies as akin to relatives who come over, borrow money, and then spend the day using your pool."

Preparing for a new U.S. relationship, French President Emmanuel Macron warned on November 7 of the potential collapse of "transatlanticism."

"Trump was elected by the American people, and he will defend U.S. interests, which is legitimate and proper," Macron stated. "The question is whether we are ready to defend European interests. That is the only question."

The U.S.-China relationship is likely to dominate Trump’s second term. Former and current advisors indicate he plans to amplify the hardline approach of his first term.

Trump could reignite a trade war and invest heavily in the U.S. military to deter potential conflicts in the Pacific.

The President-elect is more wary of China, which he blames for unleashing the Covid-19 pandemic and costing him the 2020 presidential race, according to two former administration officials. Trump is also infuriated by claims that Beijing sought to hack his 2024 campaign. However, he cannot ignore China’s role in his strategic calculations.

Democratic Senator Chris Coons warned that any missteps by Trump in relations with European allies could provide geopolitical advantages to Beijing.

"China has been waiting and preparing for that. We should be challenging China's influence by deepening alliances," he said.

Reducing the U.S. military footprint abroad was a goal of Trump’s first administration. The current conflicts in Europe and the Middle East do not directly involve U.S. troops, but that doesn’t mean Trump will remain on the sidelines.

According to advisors, he may soon push for even more extensive diplomatic interventions than the Biden administration has undertaken.

"He wants the U.S. involved in every global conflict as a mediator to propose diplomatic solutions," a former Trump White House official stated. "That will be the central focus of his next efforts—to act as a global peace broker." Even lower-level disputes could attract the President-elect's attention. According to a former White House official, during his first term, Trump discussed mediating the politically distant and long-standing dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River.

Supporters and critics alike believe Trump’s greatest asset is his unpredictability, in contrast to President Biden, who often telegraphs his actions.

According to his allies, when Trump is in the White House, adversaries won’t know for sure how the U.S. will respond to their actions.

"Deterrence requires making your adversaries see clear threats, and Trump has succeeded in doing so, whether you like him or not," said Matthew Kroenig, deputy director at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

Trump has claimed he wants to end the conflict in Ukraine, although the specifics remain unclear. His advisors suggest freezing the conflict in place, recognizing Russian control over about 20% of Ukrainian territory seized before the war, and pressuring Kyiv to abandon its NATO ambitions.

However, President Putin appears unsatisfied with his current gains in Ukraine and desires some influence over Kyiv’s future, which could prove challenging for Trump, experts believe.

Nevertheless, the President-elect "will do what is necessary to stop the fighting and the killing," O'Brien stated. "How he accomplishes that diplomatically remains to be seen, but he has made it clear that the killing must end." Trump’s advisors say he is determined to take a tougher stance on Iran compared to his predecessor. He plans to restore harsh sanctions and revert to a "maximum pressure" strategy, especially if Tehran moves closer to obtaining nuclear weapons.

On November 8, the Department of Justice revealed that the FBI had foiled an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump ahead of the election. In August, U.S. prosecutors charged a Pakistani man linked to Iran with plotting to kill Trump.

According to a former Trump administration official, the President-elect has not entirely closed the door on negotiations with Iran, but the price for talks will be steep.

"Maybe they shouldn’t have tried to assassinate him," the former official said.

Both Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, do not want war with Iran, according to those close to the President-elect. However, that does not mean he will sit idle if Iran decides to build nuclear weapons.

Trump has long campaigned against what he calls endless wars. Analysts suggest that in his second term, he might pull U.S. forces out of Iraq and Syria, where they frequently face attacks from Iranian-backed militias.

"We don’t know how things will unfold, but Trump’s approach will be far stronger, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone," said Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who served under Trump’s first administration. "He will likely use a combination of diplomacy, sanctions, and military threats to influence outcomes." On the issue of Israel, Trump may seek to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements brokered by his administration between Israel and four Arab countries. The President-elect failed to achieve this during his first term.

Unlike the Biden administration, which has discouraged Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and energy export facilities, Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "do what you need to do" when dealing with Iran and its allies. Still, Netanyahu may not have carte blanche support from the U.S. for military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump clashed with Netanyahu after the Israeli leader refused to challenge Biden’s 2020 victory. Though they have reconciled over the past year, the President-elect reportedly remains somewhat aggrieved.

Trump successfully rallied support from Muslim and Arab voters outraged by the carnage in Gaza, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in predominantly Arab-American towns.

With the current political climate in the U.S., where Republicans stand poised to control both the Senate and House, the President-elect may find congressional backing to pressure Netanyahu into ending hostilities if he chooses to do so.