Trump’s Ukraine Aid Freeze Puts Pressure on Zelensky

President Donald Trump’s decision to halt military aid to Ukraine has created intense psychological pressure on Kyiv, forcing President Volodymyr Zelensky to make concessions in hopes of repairing strained ties.

Following a heated Oval Office exchange with Zelensky last week, Trump ordered an immediate suspension of all military assistance to Ukraine on March 4.

The reasoning behind the decision was not fully explained, but Trump’s advisors indicated that aid would remain frozen until the U.S. president determined that Zelensky had made sufficient commitments toward peace negotiations with Russia.

Oleksiy Melnyk, a security expert and former Ukrainian defense official, noted that U.S. military aid accounts for roughly 30% of Ukraine’s weaponry and ammunition supply. “Is it significant? Absolutely,” Melnyk said, emphasizing Ukraine’s persistent shortages. Over three years of conflict, Ukraine has struggled against Russia’s superior firepower and manpower, making Western aid critical to its war effort.

“In a situation where ammunition and weapons are scarce, losing even 1% of aid is significant. Losing 30% is definitely crucial. Is it a disaster? Based on what I’m hearing from various sources, Ukraine can sustain its current level of fighting for about six more months,” Melnyk warned.

Since Trump’s second-term inauguration, his administration has yet to announce a new aid package for Ukraine. Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. supplied Kyiv with Abrams tanks, air defense missiles, long-range ATACMS missiles, artillery, ammunition, and reconnaissance systems.

In total, the U.S. has provided $119.62 billion in financial, humanitarian, and military support to Ukraine since the war began—more than any other country. Of this, approximately $67 billion went toward military aid, nearly half of the $136 billion provided by Ukraine’s allies.

CNN analyst Ivana Kottasova noted that Trump’s aid freeze exerts immense pressure on Ukraine to enter peace talks with Russia—without the security guarantees Kyiv has long sought from Washington.

“This decision is not about financial constraints,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “At its core, Trump believes Russia is ready for a peace deal, and that Ukraine is the obstacle.”

Trump has ramped up criticism of Zelensky in recent weeks, calling him a “non-elected dictator” and accusing him of being “ungrateful” for U.S. assistance. "Now, maybe someone doesn’t want to make a deal. And if someone doesn’t, I don’t think they’ll be around much longer," Trump warned on March 3.

Zelensky has repeatedly argued that a ceasefire deal without security guarantees would be disastrous for Ukraine, making future conflict inevitable.

Melnyk suggested that Kyiv has spent weeks trying to decipher Trump’s rhetoric—determining which statements reflect actual policy shifts and which are mere strategic posturing aimed at appeasing Russia and pressuring Ukraine into negotiations.

"Given what we’ve seen, it’s clear that this is exactly what President Trump and his supporters intend to do. And right now, these moves benefit no one but our adversaries," Melnyk said.

While Trump has yet to outline a formal peace plan, his administration has signaled that Ukraine must make territorial concessions to Russia. Officials have also dismissed Ukraine’s aspirations of NATO membership and full territorial restoration as “unrealistic.”

John Lough, head of foreign policy at the Eurasian Strategic Center, pointed out that for three years, Zelensky has maintained a hardline stance—refusing to cede territory to Russia and viewing NATO accession as a non-negotiable goal.

However, that position is now under immense pressure from Washington. Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and a former special envoy for Ukraine, suggested that Zelensky should move quickly to finalize a mineral resource agreement with the U.S. The deal was originally set to be signed on February 28 at the White House, but the Oval Office dispute derailed the process.

"If I were advising Zelensky, I’d recommend a public signing ceremony, where he expresses appreciation for America’s role as Ukraine’s strategic partner, acknowledges the unfortunate Oval Office dispute, and commits 100% to securing lasting peace," Volker said.

In recent days, Zelensky has taken steps to mollify Trump. On March 4, he stated that he was ready to sign the mineral deal “at any time and in any convenient format.” He also acknowledged that his meeting with Trump "did not go as it should have."

Zelensky even announced his willingness to negotiate, saying, “My team is ready to work under President Trump’s leadership to achieve long-term peace.”

However, Russian historian and analyst Mark Galeotti argued that Zelensky and Ukraine might have to do more than offer kind words to mend relations with Trump’s administration.

During his State of the Union address on March 4, Trump acknowledged receiving a “peace letter” from Zelensky but stopped short of indicating whether he would lift the military aid freeze.

According to CNN analyst Ivana Kottasova, recent developments suggest that Trump’s administration is willing to shake up global politics to achieve its goals—and no one can predict what’s next. “The bottom line with Trump is that Ukraine must understand its position. Flattery alone won’t suffice. Ukraine must do whatever the U.S. demands,” Galeotti said.

Justin Logan, a researcher at the Cato Institute, noted that Trump holds a powerful bargaining chip—diplomatic pressure to end the three-year war, a goal he repeatedly pledged during his reelection campaign.

“Ukraine is learning that the power of the country supplying its weapons is something it cannot afford to resist,” Logan said.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on March 5 that Zelensky’s letter was “a positive first step,” and that U.S. officials are discussing the timing, location, and framework for potential peace talks.

"I believe President Trump will seriously consider lifting the aid freeze if we can set a date for negotiations and introduce confidence-building measures at the table," Waltz said. However, he confirmed that the U.S. has already cut off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, a key asset for Kyiv’s military operations.

(Sources: CNN, The Washington Post, AP, CNBC)

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