Early voting data from battleground states suggests that Donald Trump is poised to win if the election were held now, according to veteran American journalist Mark Halperin.
With two weeks left before the U.S. presidential election, nearly 19 million people have already cast their votes, including record-high early voting in battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina. In total, about 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in 2024.
Mark Halperin, a former NBC News reporter and now the editor-in-chief of the news video channel 2WAY, stated on October 22 that early voting data from several battleground states shows Trump is performing so well that he could defeat Vice President Kamala Harris if the election happened now. He cited Nevada as an example, where early voting shows a "serious threat" to Harris. After three days of early voting, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats by about 6,000 votes, with nearly 250,000 ballots already cast.
According to Nevada's Secretary of State, 39.5% of early voters were Republicans, while 36.3% were Democrats. Halperin noted that if this trend continues until the November 5 election, the winner will be clear, emphasizing that early voting data is more significant than current polls.
In other battleground states, Republican turnout for early voting is also notably higher than in previous elections. Democratic strategist Sam Almy from Arizona observed that Republicans have improved their efforts to encourage early voting, making it easier and more convenient for voters.
While it’s unclear exactly how people are voting, analysts agree that if this pattern persists, Trump is likely to win. However, Halperin cautioned that early voting data should be monitored daily as trends can change quickly, especially with the ongoing mail-in voting.
Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy also predicted on October 22 that Trump "would certainly win" if the election took place now but expressed concerns about unexpected events in the final two weeks.
According to RealClearPolitics, Trump is leading Harris in all seven battleground states in early voting polls. More Americans are choosing to vote early, either in person or by mail, rather than waiting for Election Day on November 5.
(According to NY Post, Hill, AP)
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