Trump Does Not Rule Out U.S. Recession

President Donald Trump acknowledged the possibility of a U.S. recession this year, as tariffs and trade policies continue to impact the economy.

In a Fox News interview on March 9, Trump suggested that his economic policies would take time to show results. When asked if he expected a recession in 2024, he did not dismiss the possibility.

"I hate making predictions like that. There’s always a transition period when you’re doing big things. We’re bringing prosperity back to America—that’s the big picture. But to get there, it takes a transition, it takes some time. In the end, I think it’s going to be very good for us," Trump said.

When asked whether tariffs on imported goods could fuel inflation, Trump responded, "You could see it that way. At the same time, interest rates are coming down."

Trump Walks Back Recession Concerns

Later that day, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route from Mar-a-Lago to Washington, Trump explained why he had not ruled out a recession.

"Of course, I hesitated to answer that question. Who really knows if it will happen?" he said. However, he remained optimistic about the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy.

Trump’s admission that the economy "needs time" before his policies take effect contrasts with his previous claims that his economic decisions were delivering "quick victories" for American businesses and voters.

His remarks also contradict assurances from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who stated in a separate NBC interview on March 9 that the U.S. economy was not at risk of a downturn.

"There is absolutely no recession coming in the U.S.," Lutnick said.

Economic Concerns Grow

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, one of the 12 regional branches of the U.S. Federal Reserve, recently projected that the economy is on track for a contraction in the first quarter of 2024. This has raised fears that a prolonged slowdown could negatively impact the world’s largest economy and unsettle financial markets.

Trump’s stance on trade policy has also shifted. In 2018, during his first term, he famously declared, "Trade wars are good and easy to win." However, on March 9, he was more cautious in discussing the economic benefits of his tariff strategy and its impact on American households.

Since returning to office, Trump has pursued an "America First" trade policy, imposing new tariffs on key trading partners, particularly China, Canada, and Mexico. However, he has frequently adjusted implementation timelines and added new conditions to trade negotiations, creating uncertainty in global markets.

(Sources: The Guardian, Washington Post, Fox News)

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