President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the 51st state of the United States, even using the term "annexation" for the first time. While some allies support the notion, experts warn it is impractical and could backfire politically.
Shortly after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his plan to step down, Trump took to Truth Social to revisit his idea, suggesting Canada merge with the U.S.
"If Canada joins the United States, there will be no tariffs, and taxes will go down," Trump wrote. "Together, we’ll have a great nation."
A Familiar Proposal with High Stakes
Trump first raised the idea during a meeting with Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago in December 2024, a month after winning the U.S. presidential election. Some of his allies have voiced support for the concept. Following Congress's certification of Trump's electoral victory on January 6, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham joked, "My only thought today is we skipped counting Canada’s electoral votes. We’ll fix that next time," hinting at the annexation idea.
Others, like Canadian entrepreneur and Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary, have discussed merging the two economies and removing the U.S.-Canada border. However, experts argue that such a move is far-fetched and nearly impossible.
Legal and Political Hurdles
Annexation would require significant legal and political changes in both countries. Canada operates as a constitutional monarchy, while the U.S. is a republic. Gregory Tardi, a former legal advisor to Canada’s House of Commons, explained that Canada would need to abolish its monarchy, requiring unanimous consent from Parliament and all provincial legislatures.
Public sentiment is another obstacle. A recent poll by Leger found only 13% of Canadians support merging with the U.S., while 82% oppose the idea.
In the U.S., annexation would need approval from Congress. Both the House and Senate would have to vote to admit Canada as a state, a process historically reserved for U.S. territories like Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands.
“There’s no realistic scenario for annexation unless it involves military conflict, which no one wants,” said Matthew Lebo, a professor of political science at Western University in Ontario.
Political Risks for Republicans
Even if annexation were feasible, it could backfire on Trump and the Republican Party. With its population of over 40 million, Canada would be the largest state in the U.S., bringing significant electoral influence. Historically, Canadians lean left politically, making Canada a likely stronghold for the Democratic Party.
Rich Lowry, editor of the conservative National Review, likened Canada’s potential impact to that of California, saying it would likely shift U.S. electoral politics significantly toward the Democrats. Wayne Lesperance, a political scientist, agreed, noting that "Canada would deliver millions of Democratic voters, making it a nightmare for Republicans in future elections."
Van Jones, a Democratic strategist, openly welcomed the idea, calling it a "dream scenario" for Democrats.
Trump’s Real Motive?
Experts believe Trump’s annexation remarks are less about serious policy and more about negotiation tactics. By raising the stakes, he could pressure Canada on trade tariffs or border security issues.
“He’s teasing Trudeau and trying to assert dominance,” said Lebo. “It’s not a serious policy proposal.”
Dave Carney, a longtime Republican strategist, added that Trump often uses unconventional strategies to gain leverage. “He’s deploying the soft power of the presidency to get attention and move negotiations in his favor,” Carney told Fox News.
While the idea of annexing Canada may spark debate, it remains an improbable scenario. For now, experts say it’s more about rhetoric than reality.
(Reported by Toronto Star, Fox News, The Conversation, Politico)
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