Trump's pledge to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict "within 24 hours" has pushed both sides to intensify efforts to secure battlefield gains before his return to the White House.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has previously stated he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office, expected on January 20, 2025. He has repeatedly criticized U.S. military aid to Ukraine, claiming that Washington is "writing a blank check" for Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled that Moscow is open to negotiations, causing concern in Kyiv and among European countries that the 47th U.S. president may support a deal favorable to Russia, potentially freezing the conflict along existing frontlines.
As a result, many officials and military analysts believe the period leading up to Trump's inauguration is crucial for both sides, especially for Ukraine, which must strive to reclaim as much territory as possible. Some senior Ukrainian officials believe that if Kyiv can halt Russian advances and take the initiative on the battlefield by the time Trump assumes office, they might persuade the U.S. leader to support their cause. Meanwhile, Russian forces are reportedly intensifying their operations to avoid losing ground on the battlefield or in negotiations.
At hotspots along the 1,000-kilometer front line, Ukrainian troops are enduring relentless attacks. A Ukrainian artillery commander near Kurakhove, one of the fiercest battlegrounds, reported that Russian forces were attacking "from three directions." He noted that his unit was prepared to retreat but had not yet received orders to do so.
Kurakhove and the city of Pokrovsk, located 40 kilometers north, are key logistics hubs for the Ukrainian military, but much of the area has been destroyed. Pokrovsk's coking plant, Ukraine's largest and vital for the steel industry, has also been damaged by conflict.
The CDS estimates that by December, "the front line will have moved 30-35 kilometers further west from its current position." Ukrainian Major General Dmytro Marchenko recently stated that the eastern front was "collapsing" due to ammunition and manpower shortages. "People are exhausted. They cannot hold their positions," he said.
Manpower remains Ukraine's greatest challenge in resisting Russian advances, according to commanders and analysts.
"The average age of soldiers in many Ukrainian brigades is over 40, and it appears there is insufficient reinforcement for the front lines," said Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, who recently visited Ukraine.
Ukraine plans to recruit 160,000 soldiers between November and February. The National Security and Defense Council estimates this will only cover 85% of the actual need.
However, many military experts and even senior Ukrainian officials doubt they will reach their recruitment target, suggesting they may only add a maximum of 100,000 new recruits. While this may fill about 50% of the current gap, it remains vital for numerous units.
"Many young Ukrainians view conscription as a death sentence," a senior soldier who joined the Ukrainian army in 2022 commented on the barriers to recruitment for frontline reinforcements.
Renowned Ukrainian journalist Stanislav Aseyev, who enlisted, believes that without clear commitments from the Ministry of Defense on service duration and training quality, new recruits will lack morale and combat effectiveness. To compensate for the manpower gap, some infantry units have drawn on pilots, engineers, and medical personnel, according to Mariana Bezuhla, a member of Ukraine's foreign policy committee. Senior Air Force official Colonel Yuriy Ignat recently mentioned that some personnel had been reassigned to frontline units due to difficult circumstances.
However, a Ukrainian military spokesperson refuted Ignat's claims. "Air Force units, including engineers, pilots, maintenance staff, and medical personnel, continue to perform their specialized roles," the spokesperson said, adding that medical staff were placed in "stable positions" near the front lines in anticipation of heavy combat and casualties.
Two senior eastern front commanders confirmed that specialized personnel, such as doctors, had been reassigned to the infantry. "In war, situations like this arise. I've even had to send the unit's cook into the trenches," one commander said. Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who recently visited Ukraine's front lines, noted that Russia is overpowering Ukraine due to its larger resource pool. "They may not have elite forces, but their continuous manpower replenishment has weakened Ukrainian forces," she said.
Russia's battlefield gains have come at a significant cost, observers note. Admiral Tony Radakin, head of the British armed forces, recently estimated that Russian forces have sustained around 1,500 casualties per day in October, with total losses since February 2022 reaching 700,000. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on these figures.
Nevertheless, Massicot warned that although Russia may struggle to maintain weapon production rates by the end of next year, "Ukraine remains the side facing greater disadvantages" in the race for battlefield gains before Trump's inauguration.
(According to FT, AFP, Reuters)
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