Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces the possibility of arrest if he travels to any country that is a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), as well as increasing diplomatic isolation for Israel on the global stage.

On November 21, the ICC, headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza. This marks the first time the ICC has targeted a sitting leader of a Western ally.

The warrant exposes Netanyahu to potential arrest abroad, particularly in the 124 countries that are ICC members under the Rome Statute, including all European Union (EU) states, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Brazil, Australia, and most South American nations. While Israel and its closest ally, the United States, are not ICC members, the warrant underscores Israel’s increasing vulnerability to international legal scrutiny.

The ICC investigation began in December 2019, focusing on allegations of war crimes by Israel and Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas, in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza during the 2014 conflict and subsequent violence along the Gaza-Israel border in 2018. The scope was later expanded to include the most recent Israel-Hamas hostilities. ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan requested arrest warrants in May, and ICC judges approved them after six months of review.

Although Israel is not an ICC member, Palestine joined the Rome Statute in 2015, granting the court jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed in Gaza and the West Bank. ICC member states are legally obligated to enforce the warrants if Netanyahu enters their territory, either by arresting and transferring him to The Hague or by refusing entry altogether. While countries could defy the ICC, such actions would undermine the court’s credibility and their own international standing.

Italy and the Netherlands have declared their intent to enforce the ICC warrant. Other member states have pledged compliance but have not provided specific details. Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, stated that ICC warrants are binding on all EU members.

Even non-member states could ban Netanyahu from entry, arrest and extradite him to the ICC, or prosecute him under their own laws. A future Israeli government could also hand him over voluntarily.

Implications for Netanyahu and Israel

The ICC warrant poses broader implications beyond Netanyahu personally. It undermines the legitimacy of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, complicates relations with allies, and pressures Israel diplomatically. Although there is no formal prohibition against meeting with ICC-indicted leaders, such interactions could damage the political standing of those involved.

“Allied nations that are ICC members face domestic political pressure over engaging with Netanyahu,” said Adil Haque, a law professor at Rutgers University. “For example, it would be shocking if a German leader visited Israel and publicly shook hands or took photos with Netanyahu, as this could alienate significant public support.”

Some European allies also have laws restricting arms transfers to countries accused of potential war crimes. For example, a Dutch court has blocked the sale of fighter jet components to Israel, while the United Kingdom has suspended several arms export licenses.

South Africa, in December 2023, filed a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing it of genocide in Gaza—a charge Israel denies. The ICC warrant could strengthen South Africa’s legal arguments and bolster its position in court. The ICJ is currently investigating whether Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, a process expected to take years.

Netanyahu dismissed the ICC warrant as “baseless and anti-Semitic,” vowing to continue defending Israel. “We will not succumb to pressure,” he declared. The United States has also rejected the ICC’s jurisdiction over the matter.

Long-Term Consequences

While ICC proceedings often take years, involving multiple stages from arrest to sentencing, experts note that Chief Prosecutor Khan is likely pursuing cases with strong prospects of conviction.

“Even if Netanyahu is not arrested, he will remain accused of atrocities,” said Kelebogile Zvobgo, a governance professor at William & Mary University. “These allegations will not disappear, even if the conflict ends. The ICC does not impose statutes of limitations on its prosecutions.”