The evolving battlefield dynamics and President-elect Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House are seen as key factors behind President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to deploy ATACMS missiles against Russia.
President Joe Biden has consistently positioned unwavering support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia as a hallmark of his presidency. Over the past three years, he has worked to establish a Western alliance and navigate U.S. congressional disputes to maintain critical aid for Kyiv.
However, for much of his term, Biden resisted authorizing Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles to strike deep into Russian territory, despite repeated requests from Kyiv. The hesitation stemmed from warnings by Moscow that such actions would cross a red line, potentially escalating into direct conflict between NATO and Russia.
Yet, as the war approaches its fourth year and Biden prepares to leave office, he has shifted his stance. On November 19, Ukrainian forces launched a salvo of ATACMS missiles targeting Russian military assets in Bryansk province, marking the first use of the long-range weapon within Russian territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed on November 21 that ATACMS strikes had hit an ammunition depot in Bryansk, triggering a large fire that was later extinguished. Russian officials described the move as signaling "a new phase" in the conflict.
In response, Russia retaliated with an Oreshnik long-range ballistic missile armed with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead, targeting the Yuzhmash Machine-Building Plant in Dnipro, Ukraine—one of the country's largest and most prominent defense industry complexes. It was the first deployment of this missile type in the conflict.
The timing of Biden's decision to lift restrictions on ATACMS has raised questions, especially as his presidency winds down and power is set to transfer to President-elect Donald Trump, who has promised to end the Ukraine war "within 24 hours of taking office."
Strategic Timing Amid Political Transition
Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute, believes Biden’s decision was motivated in part by a desire to preempt Trump from pressuring Ukraine into an unfavorable settlement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed this sentiment on November 22, suggesting the Biden administration aimed to "box Trump in," preventing the incoming president from taking any "constructive actions" on Ukraine.
Biden and Trump differ significantly in their approaches to the Ukraine conflict. While Biden has pledged to support Kyiv until it regains control over Russian-occupied territory, Trump has been skeptical of this strategy. He opposes unconditional aid to Ukraine and has vowed to pressure both sides into swiftly ending the war.
Ukrainian officials and Western leaders worry Trump might push Kyiv to cede territory to Russia in exchange for peace—an outcome Kyiv has vehemently opposed.
To bolster Ukraine’s position ahead of potential negotiations under Trump’s administration, Biden appears intent on helping Kyiv maximize its battlefield leverage. A key bargaining chip for Ukraine is its control of parts of Russia’s Kursk province, seized during a surprise cross-border operation in August.
Moscow is now concentrating forces to retake the area before Trump’s inauguration. ATACMS could enable Ukraine to delay Russia’s advances, potentially preserving this leverage.
Two anonymous officials told The Washington Post that the ATACMS deployment was initially authorized for use in Kursk and nearby regions where Ukrainian forces are striving to maintain their foothold. The long-range missiles can precisely strike Russian ammunition depots, command centers, and troop concentrations, forcing Moscow to move its logistics hubs beyond ATACMS’ 300-km range.
By disrupting Russian supply lines and delaying reinforcements, Ukraine could strengthen its position for any future negotiations. "Maintaining a continuous presence in Russian territory gives Ukraine a significant advantage in peace talks," observers note.
A Calculated Move with Strategic Implications
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, highlighted the critical timing of Biden’s decision, as his presidency ends in two months. Even if Trump moves to halt aid to Ukraine after taking office, Biden’s authorization of ATACMS leaves a lasting impact.
"If ATACMS can help Ukraine stall Russia in Kursk and maintain its territorial gains, it’s a win for both Washington and Kyiv," Miller said. "Some Republicans still view Ukraine as vital to U.S. national interests, regardless of the administration."
Criticism from Trump Allies
Trump’s allies have criticized Biden’s decision. Donald Trump Jr. accused the administration of trying to "trigger World War III before my father can establish peace and save lives."
Representative Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, called the move "an escalatory step" and warned of its unpredictable consequences.
Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, countered these criticisms, arguing that Biden’s decision aligns with his cautious, incremental approach throughout the conflict.
"Biden’s strategy has consistently been: if Russia escalates, we respond proportionately," O’Hanlon said.
Escalating Battlefield Challenges
The decision also reflects urgent battlefield realities. Russian forces have been advancing at unprecedented speed, threatening key Ukrainian strongholds in Donbass. In Kursk, U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence have observed significant Russian reinforcements, reportedly including North Korean troops.
Without decisive action, Ukraine risks losing critical defensive lines, leaving it vulnerable as Trump assumes office. Kyiv might then be forced to accept Trump’s terms for a swift resolution.
"Authorizing ATACMS is likely the least risky option Biden could take under current circumstances," said David Miller. "The limited number of ATACMS Ukraine has received—just a few dozen—won’t drastically alter the war’s trajectory. They are suited for high-value, well-fortified targets."
Former U.S. ambassador William Courtney agreed, noting that Ukraine has previously struck deep into Russian territory using drones with greater range than ATACMS. "This isn’t a strategic game-changer. These missiles are tailored for urgent, critical Russian targets," he said.
Potential Risks and Russian Reactions
Lieven warned of significant risks. On November 19, Putin approved a new nuclear doctrine lowering the threshold for deploying such weapons, raising fears of a nuclear escalation.
Russia’s Oreshnik missile strike on Dnipro underscores the potential for the conflict to spiral into a broader confrontation.
"Direct U.S.-Russia conflict remains unlikely, but Moscow may retaliate by targeting a U.S. ally. Russians fear their red lines are being continually crossed, making Biden’s decision inherently risky," Lieven cautioned.
(According to Al Jazeera, ABC News, Washington Post)
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