If Trump wins re-election, he could not only disrupt U.S. politics but also drive significant changes in global security and economic landscapes.
On November 5, American voters will decide the nation’s 47th president in one of the tightest races ever, as Donald Trump faces off against Kamala Harris. If Trump prevails in this third bid for the presidency, his return to the White House could have profound global implications.
Trump has suggested reducing U.S. support for NATO and possibly disregarding Article 5, which mandates collective defense. His criticisms of NATO allies for insufficient defense spending have strained alliances, and his direct warnings have spurred member nations to increase their contributions. To prevent Trump from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO, the U.S. Congress passed legislation in 2023 requiring Senate approval for such a move.
Ukraine may face immense pressure if Trump is re-elected. His “America First” policy suggests he could push for a settlement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially by cutting military aid if Ukraine does not compromise. Trump claims he could end the war in 24 hours but has not specified how. Analysts believe he might press Ukraine to trade territory for peace, threatening to withhold U.S. support if Kyiv refuses.
In the Middle East, Trump could reinforce his influence. His administration’s Abraham Accords normalized ties between Israel and several Arab nations, but tensions have risen with recent conflicts like the Israel-Hamas war. Trump's unyielding support for Israel and his past recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital have strained relations with Arab countries, while his aggressive stance toward Iran remains a wildcard. He previously withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal and ordered a strike killing Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, hinting at a willingness for further escalation.
Trump’s rivalry with China could also intensify. He initiated a trade war in 2018, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions in Chinese goods, and he plans even stricter trade measures in a potential second term. Such actions might provoke strong countermeasures from Beijing, heightening economic and strategic tensions. His tough stance could also push China and Russia closer together, creating a stronger axis of opposition to the U.S., especially if Trump alienates European allies.
Trump’s environmental policies are unpredictable. He has called climate change a “hoax” but later admitted humans play a role. He may roll back Biden's climate initiatives and could pull the U.S. from the Paris Agreement again, prompting concerns from global leaders like Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Ultimately, the world is bracing for a potentially transformative and unpredictable era if Trump wins, waiting to see how the American electorate will shape the future in this crucial election.
(According to Channel News Asia, The Conversation)
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