Working-class white women, a group that strongly supported Donald Trump in past elections, could be pivotal in deciding this year's outcome. Although Vice President Kamala Harris generally fares better among women voters overall, Trump maintains a significant advantage with white women without college degrees—a demographic he led decisively in both 2016 and 2020.
Republican presidential candidates have traditionally secured about three-fifths of working-class white women's votes in past elections, but Trump expanded this to two-thirds in both previous races, according to Edison Research exit polls. This group remains a crucial factor for Trump’s third White House bid, with many dissatisfied with President Biden's administration, particularly on issues like inflation and border security.
This demographic is concentrated in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—once a Democratic stronghold but flipped by Trump in 2016 and then reclaimed by Biden in 2020. Harris does not need to win over all of these voters but must retain enough support to compete effectively.
Democrats have launched major outreach efforts targeting this group. The American Bridge 21st Century super PAC is spending $140 million to engage three million women, mainly non-college-educated white women, in these crucial states. Their strategy focuses on emphasizing the instability linked to Trump’s presidency.
Even small shifts in this group could be decisive. Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection success partly relied on securing around 45% of these voters in key states. In contrast, Hillary Clinton's failure to appeal to them in 2016 contributed to her losses in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Harris faces a tougher challenge attracting male voters, especially working-class white men, young men, and voters of color, making women’s support even more critical. While Trump’s messaging emphasizes fears about immigration and crime, economic concerns weigh heavily on these voters. Many believe the economy was better under Trump, and inflation remains a pressing issue despite recent improvements.
Polls reflect this sentiment: a New York Times/Siena survey showed 54% of white women without college degrees felt Trump’s policies helped them, compared to 53% who felt Biden’s policies hurt them. This economic dissatisfaction, along with perceptions of Trump as a strong leader, keeps him appealing to many, even if his divisive rhetoric leaves some voters conflicted.
(According to CNN, AFP, Reuters)
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